Published research
Sector deep-dives, single-name equity write-ups, and occasional macro / strategy notes. Open a piece to read the full report.
Tesla — Initiating Coverage
Q2-26 delivered record revenue of $28.2B (+26%) on record deliveries — and a 1.4% operating margin, negative free cash flow, and a capex guide raised above $25B. Both halves are the thesis: Tesla is deliberately trading near-term earnings for an autonomy and robotics option, and we think that is right for the company. At $313 it is wrong for the shareholder — you are paid for the bull case and carry ~80% downside to the bear. We initiate Cautious, Scenario Fair Value $235.
Alphabet Q2-26 Update — Cloud Inflects, the Market Sells the Capex
Cloud grew 82% to $24.8B at a 35.6% operating margin with backlog up $54B to $514B — the pillar our June initiation leaned on landed four years ahead of model. The market sold a $15B capex raise and the first negative FCF quarter in company history, taking the stock to $317. We upgrade Neutral → Positive and raise Fair Value to $425, published below our own $449 weighted math as a deliberate haircut for capex execution risk.
Apple — Initiating Coverage
Best-in-class hardware ecosystem + high-margin Services annuity, but the 30x forward P/E already discounts the AI-iPhone super-cycle we don't yet have visibility on. At $334 the scenario-weighted Fair Value of $320 leaves a symmetric but unexciting risk/reward — we initiate Neutral.
TSMC — Initiating Coverage
The world's only leading-edge foundry, entering the second inning of a multi-year revenue and margin re-basing on AI. Q2-26 delivered $40.2B (+36% YoY) at a record 67.7% GM; management raised FY26 growth guidance to 'slightly above 40%' and lifted capex to $60-64B. At $398 the forward P/E is a benign 19-23x for the monopoly. Scenario Fair Value $475 implies +19%; we initiate Positive.
JPMorgan Chase — Initiating Coverage
The best bank in the world at the richest valuation in its own modern history: FY25 ROTCE 20%, a blowout 2Q26 (revenue +15%, NII guide raised to ~$105.5B), but P/E and P/B sit 1.7-2.2σ above their 8-year bands. Scenario Fair Value $340 vs $344 spot; we initiate Neutral.
ASML — Initiating Coverage
Sole EUV supplier entering its steepest, best-underwritten demand inflection — the July guidance raise to €43-45B is contracted, not hoped. But at $1,815 the stock trades 2.5σ above its own 8-year P/E band and our DCF grid tops out at $1,898. Scenario Fair Value $1,900 implies +5%; we initiate Neutral.
Micron FQ3-26 Update — Blowout Print, Booked Through 2027
A 24% revenue beat, 390bp gross-margin beat, and "sold through calendar 2027" language extend earnings duration by ~1 year — but at $1,211 the stock already prices the raised FQ4 guide and the FY28 demand narrative. Reiterate Neutral; raise FV to $950.
Micron Technology — Initiating Coverage
Exceptional HBM-driven execution at a cyclical peak — a disciplined mid-cycle valuation says the supercycle is already in the price; we initiate at HOLD with an $820 scenario-weighted target.
NVIDIA — Initiating Coverage
30% growth, 64% EBITDA margins, 51% FCF margins, 78% accelerator share — a superb business now trading at peer-median multiples. Our $217 scenario-weighted value implies only +5% over 18 months; we initiate Neutral.
Alphabet — Initiating Coverage
FY25 revenue $402.8B (+15%) and Q1-26 acceleration to $109.9B (+22%, eleventh consecutive double-digit quarter); Google Cloud +63% with a $460B contracted backlog — the largest visibility of any public cloud provider. At $349 the stock trades on peer-median 30x forward P/E; our $385 scenario fair value sits +10% above the price, split between exit-multiple DCF ($398) and perpetuity DCF ($168). We initiate Neutral with positive lean.
Microsoft — Initiating Coverage
After a 33% drawdown from the 52-week high, MSFT trades at 19.2x forward P/E vs peer-median 18.6x; FCF margin troughs at ~19% in FY26E and recovers to ~28% by FY30E as Azure + Copilot revenue scales against the depreciating AI asset base. Scenario fair value $415 / current $374.51 implies +10.8%; we initiate Positive.
SpaceX — Initiating Coverage
Near-monopoly launch (60% of 2025 global), only operational global LEO consumer broadband (10.3M subs), and a captive frontier AI lab — but at 94x FY25 sales the SOTP base case sits 20% below current. We initiate Neutral with a $189 scenario-weighted value.